Clinton woes in the face of unpredictable Trump

The much anticipated US presidential election is now under seven weeks away. As the top two candidates; Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, enter the final stretch, major shifts have taken place. In a previous article, “Who will get it right on November 8”, Citizen Digital noted the importance of electoral votes at the electoral college in determining who becomes the 45^th President of America.

Even though she continues to lead Trump, Hillary Clinton continues to lose ground at an alarming rate. On average, all major opinion polls in the US put her at a one percentage point ahead of Trump in the popular vote.

It is more alarming that her secured electoral votes have reduced from 209 to just 200. According to www.realclearpolitics.com. Trump on the other hand has gained ten electoral votes to stand at 164. 174 electoral votes are classified as toss-ups, meaning they could go either way. It is important to note, however, that the winning candidate will need at least 270 electoral votes which represents just above half of the 538 electoral votes.

While this is clearly bad news for Clinton who has been in the lead in the entire presidential race, she has done little to revamp her campaign in the past week since her health scare weekend in the 9/11 memorial. Just like Trump, she suffers an unfavorable tag among the electorate. In the past week, the US has suffered attacks suspected on terror in at least three cities including in the New York City. Clinton and Trump have used the opportunity to make their case for their campaign. While Trump has been keen at assuring the electorate that such attacks will not happen under his watch, even warning it could get worse if Clinton is elected; Clinton has on the other hand been keen at banking on her experience including when she served as the Secretary of State in President Obama’s first term.

The declining showing in the polls is surely a cause for alarm in the Clinton campaign. If it offers any consolation to Clinton supporters, however, a top elections prediction website www.fivethirtyeight.com predicts that Clinton could win the November 8 election by at least 57% against Trumps 42%. It should be noted however that shortly after the Democratic National Convention at the end of July, Clinton had an elective probability of 73%. Her declining popularity is despite passionate backing by President Obama.

When he addressed Congressional Black Caucus gala last Saturday, Obama led an impassioned plea to the black community calling them to turn out and vote for Clinton. “I will consider it a personal insult, an insult to my legacy, if this community lets down its guard and fails to activate itself in this election. You want to give me a good sendoff? Go vote,” Obama said.

Less than seven weeks to the election, Clinton, who thus far has the election to lose, must harness her energy and turn the tide to her side. And she seems to have taken note of that reality such that she has now taken a break from the campaign trail to focus on preparing for the first presidential debate scheduled for Monday, September 26. Reports indicate she has been practising for her appearance for the past few weeks. For Trump, however, there is no evidence that he has been preparing. Some may see this as a weakness but it could as well be his strength: his unpredictability.

Clinton is reported to be reviewing Trump’s past performances in the Republican debates, to understand his stands on issues and weak points that put him off balance. Her campaign team admits that she’s cognizant of Trump’s unpredictability to be a challenge ahead of the face-to-face encounter.

The two candidates have three debates to wrestle each other. Whoever impresses in the first episode may drastically boost their showing in the polls and hopefully their chances of being elected in the 58^th US Presidential election.