KEMRI predicts fourth wave of the Coronavirus pandemic will peak in Mid-July

The word
The word "COVID-19" is reflected in a drop on a syringe needle in this illustration taken on November 9, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Thursday, July 1 marked 471 days since COVID-19 was confirmed in the country and the battle against the invisible enemy is still on…

A report by the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) paints a dull picture of what lies ahead.

The report which laid out the forecast for the next six months warns that the fourth wave was beckoning and that by mid-July, the country will experience a peak in the rate of infections.

The surge attributed to the variant first discovered in India, which has been found to be 60 percent more transmissible than the first variant and bound to present more severe symptoms.

According to the researchers, Nairobi and the Coastal region will be worst hit by the fourth wave.

Kemri notes that genomic sequencing carried out to ascertain the spread of the Indian variant showed that it was slowly gaining dominance over the first variant.

“We believe the measures we put in place in June will prevent a second wave in July,” Acting Director General of Health Dr. Patrick Amoth said on Thursday.

Simulation to determine the possible outcomes of the modelling showed that within six months 4300 additional hospital admissions and 580 deaths are anticipated…

Priority regions according to the scientists are Nyanza and Western Kenya, whose health facilities run the risk of being stretched beyond their capacities.

And as the government intensifies its surveillance in the 13 hotspots in the lake basin region, the case load in the country rose further as 376 new cases were recorded marking a 9.8 percent positivity rate.

The total infections now stand at 184, 537.

Nairobi continued leading the pack of counties recording cases with 174 followed by Uasin Gishu, Mombasa, Busia, Kisumu, Siaya, Kwale, Kakamega and Nyamira.

Other counties recorded between 7 and 1 cases

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Story By Chemutai Goin
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