MWANGI: Will Political Militias Be East Africa’s Achilles Heel?

Much of what was contained in a communique issued at the conclusion of the latest East African Community summit on Burundi was run-of-the-mill stuff, with the expected calls for all parties to desist from violence and work toward a negotiated solution to the conflict.

The summit, which was also attended by South African President Jacob Zuma, did, however, give an indication of how the violence might develop and get out of hand, though this aspect was not given prominence.

This has to do with the escalation of armed militias. The 12th item in the 18-point communique called for “urgent disarmament of all armed youth groups allied to political parties.”

And this is the likely point on which either peace will be made or war escalated.

In any functioning government, the monopoly of violence is held by those in power.

Everybody submits to the authority of rulers for fear of what may befall them if they contravened the laws of the land, however disagreeable they may feel about those laws.

Of course, revolutionaries disregard such fears and are normally prepared to pay the price – including with their own lives.

The vast majority of the population, however, normally just wants to go about their lives peacefully.

So long as you do not touch their wives and few goats, they are content to allow you to do just about anything, including looting the Treasury and running down all the country’s institutions.

They may not be happy about the turn of events, but the instinct for self-preservation prevents them from becoming openly confrontational.

When attempts are made to interfere with people’s lives at a personal level – or even to kill a population en masse – active mobilization and militarization will then almost certainly begin.

Having gone through these cycles of violence, the people of Burundi already know what to expect.

Although they had enjoyed peace longer than their South Sudanese counterparts and are therefore hesitant in taking the path of violence, they cannot be expected to stomach much provocation before moving in that direction.

But for violent confrontation to take place, there must be sufficient distribution of sophisticated weaponry among various groups.

It means the state no longer holds a monopoly to violence. That is only possible with widespread proliferation of small arms and light weapons – a significant problem in our region.

These weapons, moreover, do not just get into the hands of criminal gangs out to get money and valuables from their victims.

Far more dangerous is the situation when such arms get into the hands of youth groups that owe their loyalty to political masters and are ready to wage vicious war at their behest.

The political violence that rocked Kenya in 2007-8 revealed the existence of ruthless armed militias loyal to various leaders across the political divide.

To this day, allegations are often made of the existence of organized groups fuelling cattle rustling and other evils, with the connivance of their political heads.

In Rwanda, the planners of the 1994 genocide employed the use of armed militias to execute their plans for mass extermination of the Tutsi population and their sympathizers.

Fortunately, their opponents were already organized as well, leading to the victory of President Paul Kagame’s forces, who stopped the killings.

Is it good to have a balance of such force, then, to save the situation when rogue rulers decide to take the people for granted? That is a debatable point.

But even though electoral conflict and violence is a feature in most East African countries, it does not degenerate into widespread armed conflict where no armed civilian militias exist.

In Tanzania, for example, electoral violence in Zanzibar and other hotspots has been largely contained because of its spontaneous and disorganized nature.

Increasing militarization of populations, coupled with intransigence of rulers in allowing democratic processes to take their course, is now threatening to disrupt this delicate balance, with disastrous consequences for peace and security in the region.

It is a culture of violence that we should all strive to change. That change must begin with rulers learning to respect the constitutional order and rule of law.

The motivation for armed militias to protect communal interests would thus become unnecessary.

Is If that is not done, the unending lessons from the past will keep on being repeated in East Africa, from one country to the next.

By Isaac Mwangi, East African News Agency