Optimism about Ending AIDS misplaced- Experts Say

Everyone agrees it sounds like a wonderful goal: The U.N. AIDS agency aims to end the deadly epidemic by the year 2030.

The agency’s “90-90-90” treatment plan, using 2020 as a target date, aims for 90 percent of people living with HIV to know their HIV status; 90 percent of HIV-positive people to receive treatment; and 90 percent of people on treatment to show suppressed viral loads.

The plan, in theory, would prevent nearly 28 million new HIV infections and 21 million AIDS-related deaths worldwide.

It won’t come cheaply, UNAIDS said. In the next five years, low-income countries will need as much as $9.7 billion, and lower-middle-income countries will need $8.7 billion. That means the bill will fall on wealthier international donors, like the United States and other Western nations.

As experts from around the world converge on Durban, South Africa, for the International AIDS Conference that begins Monday, even the optimists say such goals won’t be easy to reach.

Data look promising

That doesn’t mean it’s not possible, said Matthew Kavanagh, senior policy analyst for the U.S.-based Health Global Access Project. The health statistics look promising; some countries, he said, have reached the 90-90-90 goals and others are close.

That’s what makes it maddening, he said: The end of AIDS could be within reach if donors invested more money and governments showed more political will to fight the disease. He sharply criticized major donors, including the U.S. and European nations, for giving greater priority to other problems.

Speaking to VOA from Durban, Kavanagh said he was worried that talk about the end of AIDS might overshadow problems at the conference.

“I am deeply disturbed that we don’t hear the emergency in the voice of UNAIDS and the United Nations,” he said. “I hope that I don’t hear a lot of happy talk about how we’re on track to end AIDS, because we’re not. We could be, but the world is not showing a political will. …

“We’re halfway to a goal. If we get the rest of the way to the goal, we could actually be in the space to talk about the end of AIDS. But given that we’re not on not on track, we need to be hearing about how there’s an emergency, how donors need to step up, how affected countries need to step up, how there needs to be a radical change in how we do business — or we won’t end AIDS.”