OTANI: Should Raila Odinga hang up his political boots?

“KIBAKI TOSHA!” The words from then and current opposition leader Raila Amollo Odinga in a declaration at Uhuru Park, Nairobi, in 2002 that united the then opposition and became a game changer ending the 24-year long autocratic leadership of retired President Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi.

Odinga is by all means an enigma in the Kenyan political arena, and has been for a decade or two, inheriting his father Jaramogi Oginga’s political kingdom, especially in the Luo Nyanza. That is not in doubt, his presence always being felt whenever he speaks about a matter he is passionate about.

However, his supporters and strongest critics agree that the Raila of 2016 is not as energetic and charismatic as the Raila of 2007. He has lost some glow and is fast losing his appeal that propelled him to the gates of State House in 2007 before his dream of ascending to the country’s top most job fell flat; instead only landing a post as Prime Minister in a negotiated grand coalition government headed by President Mwai Kibaki.

Can the son of Jaramogi get his mojo back ahead of 2017? Can he re-invent himself politically fast enough to challenge and floor President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto in the 2017 General Elections?

Raila finds himself in a precarious position with a not-so-dazzling future, as far as trouncing Kenyatta is concerned given the circumstances he finds himself in. Holding no elective post, the opposition leader finds himself in an awkward situation where he cannot confidently marshal his troops to influence directly the approval or rejection of laws in the National Assembly.

This means he has to rely on Parliamentarians’ goodwill, and especially those in the opposition, to get his way in the August House.

CORD MPs have been unable to sniff, make noise and reject controversial laws that have been passed on the floor of the House, with the recent being the Miscellaneous Amendment Act 2015 that includes, among other things, the Judicial Service Act 2011 empowers the President to expressly appoint a Chief Justice.

Opposition troops have performed dismally in the National Assembly, always being caught flat-footed and using the “Tyranny of numbers” excuse in press conferences to “oppose” controversial clauses that escape their “hawk-eyed” notice. This is a sign of lack of clear direction from CORD’s Minority Leader in Parliament Francis Nyenze and his deputy Jakoyo Midiwo.

MPs under CORD’s parties, ODM, Wiper and Ford Kenya have been embroiled in financial and bribery allegations with embattled ODM Secretary General Ababu Namwamba losing the chairmanship of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) amid accusations of receiving bribes to doctor the watchdog committee’s controversial graft reports.

At some point, Midiwo was also forced to ward off claims by Ugunja MP and ODM Director of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi that he was working with the Jubilee Government and getting tenders from the National Youth Service.

Wiper, headed by former long serving Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, is on the other hand also grappling with internal turmoil, key being the Ukambani region supremacy war between Musyoka backed by Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama and Machakos Governor Dr. Alfred Mutua, who recently launched his Maendeleo Chap Chap movement.

This points to a sign of a identity and integrity crisis within CORD with those harbouring higher ambitions like Budalangi MP Ababu Namwamba and Mutua et al being christened as moles.

Raila’s co-principal in CORD Kalonzo Musyoka does not seem enthusiastic about being in the opposition, always seeming bitter about Jubilee and how he was short-changed for the top seat by Kenyatta and Ruto in the run up to the March 4^th, 2013 General Elections.

How many times do you see Musyoka come out strongly on the opposition agenda? Raila recently issued a hard-hitting ‘State of The Nation Address,’ a crucial statement for the opposition, yet Musyoka was conspicuously missing. Am convinced the former VP’s lacklustre performance in the opposition simply means he has not accepted the fact that he is in the opposition as he has never been out of the government.

Bungoma Senator and CORD co-principal Moses Wetangula, on the other hand, is facing the biggest tests of his political career with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) set to determine on whether to strike him off the voter register over allegations of bribing voters in 2013.

This leaves Odinga exposed and weak, vividly exposing the nakedness in his opposition brigade that he intends to rely on to propel him to presidency in 2017.

Raila should groom another king for post-2017. He has seemingly become the Kingmaker who would never be king given the short time to the next poll and the odds he faces against Uhuruto.

He should critically consider modelling a king for 2022, when Ruto is also eyeing the State House position.

Raila made Kibaki king, and inadvertently made Ruto Deputy President, but he should realize he has a scrawny team in CORD currently that might deny him his presidential dream in 2017, which pundits see as his last shot.  Who will fit his shoes should he fail to marshal a dream team to oust Kenyatta in 2017?

How will he handle a possible loss in 2017, given that he has not yet groomed anyone to inherit his political kingdom and how will he deal with such a loss? Crowning another king might be the only way Raila will become the President of Kenya, albeit indirectly. No?