Raila maintains lead over Uhuru in new poll

Rila Odinga says his perception of the Jubilee government as “illegitimate” has not changed even ...
Rila Odinga says his perception of the Jubilee government as “illegitimate” has not changed even after Supreme Court ruled to uphold Uhuru's win in Oct. 26 poll [PHOTO | FILE]

The National Super Alliance (NASA) presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, would amass 49 per cent of Kenyans’ votes, while Jubilee Party’s President Uhuru Kenyatta would garner 48 per cent of the votes if elections were held today, an Infotrak poll released on Tuesday, August 1 shows.

Tunza Coalition presidential candidate Abduba Dida would get 0.3 per cent of the votes, while Third Way Alliance presidential candidate Ekuru Aukot would get 0.1 per cent of the votes.

Another 2 per cent of the sampled voters were undecided, the Infotrak poll shows.

While releasing the poll results at the Infotrak offices in Lavington, Nairobi, Infotrak CEO, Angela Ambitho, said the pollster used the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) register to guide their sampling.

“We only spoke to registered voters and those who clearly stated that they intend to vote,” said Angela Ambitho.

The Infotrak poll, which sampled 5, 000 voters, shows Raila Odinga leading in the Coast, Eastern, Western, Nyanza and Nairobi regions, while President Uhuru Kenyatta would carry the day in the Rift Valley, Central and North Eastern regions.

Ms Ambitho, however, noted that Odinga had made a significant inroad into Rift Valley, a region perceived to be Deputy President William Ruto’s heartland.

On the other hand, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s support in the Coast region increased significantly.

“It is clear that only Raila Odinga or Uhuru Kenyatta can win in the presidential race. The 2 per cent undecided voters will handle the tie. The 2 per cent can go either way and determine the outcome. Either Raila Odinga or Uhuru Kenyatta will clinch the presidency,” said Ms Ambitho.

Despite the poll showing none of the front runners would surpass the 50 per cent plus 1 vote needed to clinch the presidency in the first round, Ms Ambitho has ruled out the possibility of a run-off.

“What we have is a statistical dead heat, with only 1 per cent difference,” she said.

Ms Ambitho said the presidential poll released Tuesday, August 1 is the firm’s last ahead of the August 8 general election.

“We have been crunching the numbers till early this morning (Tuesday, August 1) because we had to beat the seven days before general election embargo we placed on ourselves as the Marketing Research Association,” she said.

According to the poll, Raila is leading in Coast with 63% against Uhuru’s 32%, Eastern 51% against Uhuru’s 47%, Western 79% against Uhuru’s 19%, Nyanza 86% against Uhuru’s 14%, Nairobi 56% against Uhuru’s 40%.

Uhuru is leading in North Eastern with 48% against Raila’s 46%, Central 92% against Raila’s 5%, Rift Valley 65% against Raila’s 32%.

In a previous Infotrak poll – released on July 23 –, Odinga came ahead of President Kenyatta, with a 47 per cent approval rating, compared to Uhuru Kenyatta’s 46 per cent. Undecided voters were polled at 6 per cent.

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Brian Okoth
Story By Brian Okoth
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