Russia-Turkey tension escalates over downed warplane

The relations between Russia and Turkey have continued to deteriorate as Russia starts its latest round of retaliatory actions over a downed Russian warplane.

On Friday, Russia announced it would suspend the visa-free regime for Turkish visitors starting from Jan. 1 next year. And President Vladimir Putin has warned of a number of other sanction measures and even threatened to freeze joint projects.

Meanwhile, crowds gathered in front of the Turkish embassy in Moscow, chanting “murderers” and pelting the building with eggs and tomatoes to protest the downing of the Russian fighter jet by Turkey earlier this week.

“We wanted to be friends with them but they went and unexpectedly performed this dirty act against us,” said an angry Russian protester.

Some of Russia’s top travel agencies have already stopped selling packages to Turkey, following warnings from their government against traveling here.

“Of course the tourism sector will suffer in a serious way,” said Igor Nikolayev, director of the FBK Strategic Analysis Institute of Russia.

“For Russia this will be a challenge and it will deal a blow to the Russian economy which will suffer from the embargo of the freezing of the economic cooperation with Turkey. And of course the Turkish economy will also suffer a lot,” he added.

Russians account for around 12 percent of all visitors to Turkey, according to Turkish data. Last year alone, nearly 4.5 million Russians visited Turkey, adding around four billion U.S. dollars to Turkey’s economy.

Prior to the crisis, Turkey planned to boost its trade volume with Russia to around 100 billion U.S. dollars over the next five years.

Analysts worry the latest moves could have serious implications for both sides, but they say it is unlikely this war of words would turn into a trade war.

“In the short run, it’s going to affect Turkey and it’s going to hurt. There’s no doubt about that. But the mutual interdependency run so deep, so I do not think these are sustainable in the long run. What I expect is after the political score is settled, these sanctions will go away silently,” Dr. Ahmet Kasim Han, an associate professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

But the real stakes lie in the energy sector.

“I do not expect Russia to impose any sanctions on the energy front. After repeated crisis with Ukraine, Russia has been repeatedly blamed for using energy, especially natural gas, as a diplomatic leverage, as a weapon against its customers and Russia tried very hard to prove otherwise,” Dr. Han said.

Economists forecast Turkey’s economy is estimated to grow less than 3 percent this year while Russia is bracing itself for its longest recessions in decades after the collapse in oil prices.