The threat of terrorism to North Eastern voting pattern

For the past several weeks, North Eastern Kenya has suffered attacks from suspected Al Shabaab militants who have primarily targeted police officers and other law enforcement agents.

So far, the country has lost 19 police officers in the attacks while many others, including civilians, have suffered severe or minor injuries.

The residents of the volatile region have expressed fear that if action is not taken early enough, the attacks might worsen as the country heads to the election and that they might disrupt the electoral process set for August 8, 2017.

However, security experts think terrorists are only interested in massaging their egos, especially during the electioneering period.

“The terrorists want to divert the attention of the security officers from the elections and have it focused on them. They like attention and when they see the media talking about them and the photographs of blown up vehicles, that is their joy. They feel that they have delivered their message,” notes Mr. Enock Makanga, the chairman Protective and Safety Association of Kenya.

Mr. Makanga, however, says that the attacks will not hamper voting in the affected regions of Garissa and Mandera counties.

“I don’t think there is any serious effect because these terrorists are targeting officers and not civilians. Of course it will scare some voters, but the residents are used to a hard life unlike those in other parts of the country.”

However, a paper published by Project Syndicate and authored by two psychology experts, Raj Persaud and Adrian Furnham, argues that terrorism has a unique way of diverting voters’ attention away from the “normal”, and instead pushing them to focus on issues such as security or foreign policy.

Political analyst Barrack Muluka agrees with the findings, saying countries need to look keenly into such issues.

“In developed democracies, this should be a major issue for the national government under which the security dockets falls and also county governments. It should really matter in a properly functional democracy,” argues Mr. Muluka.

Mr. Muluka says that since clan and tribe politics dominate the political scene, residents will turn out in large numbers if their tribe leaders urge them to.

“You know the thing about insecurity, when these strikes and attacks become recurrent, they become normal, the abnormal becomes normal and life goes on,” says Muluka.

However, North Eastern residents remain hopeful that they will see an end to these attacks.