Why Raila fears to take part in this election

National Super Alliance (NASA) flag-bearer Raila Odinga’s decision to quit the presidential race did not come as a surprise, neither was it spontaneous. Even though he has lost in four presidential elections, Raila is still a smart politician, just not smart enough to win an election. Signs were on the wall even before the August 8 General Election that the former Prime Minister was going to lose the election, which he did.

The NASA leaders knew and still do that they had no numbers to beat President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto. In 2013, the dynamic duo beat Raila and his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka hands down, so if the 2013 numbers remained constant then Raila would still lose. But then there was additional voters added to the register, with the last such exercise taking place in the February this year. In that registration of new registers, statistics showed that NASA strongholds enlisted fewer new numbers than the Jubilee side.

But NASA diehard fans would argue that Raila and Kalonzo and Senator Moses Wetangula’s decision to bring Musalia Mudavadi and former Governor Isaac Ruto boosted their numbers. Yes, it did, but to what extent? First of all, in 2013, Mudavadi got only about 300,000 votes, which were not even enough to force a run-off between Raila and Uhuru. What would make him this time to add votes to the NASA basket enough to tilt the difference? Don’t even talk about Governor Ruto and his Chama Cha Mashinani because you all know the humiliation he suffered and now he has gone mute.

But even the wrangles that characterized the process that finally led to the picking of Raila as flag-bearer and Kalonzo as his running was another sign that the NASA house was not doing so well. It also brought to the fore what the NASA leaders were really after – power. And the ordinary Kenyan voter could also read the sign that the opposition had no agenda for them. This election was not about the voter, it was about how the NASA principals would share power. On the contrary, President Kenyatta and DP Ruto’s lineup remained the same and the agenda was to continue building Kenya.

It was because of all these signs that NASA decided to attack the election process in their Supreme Court petition, and not the numbers. They knew the numbers did not favour them and would lose the petition had the court had agreed to a recount. Fortunately to them, the court bought into their scheme and nullified the election.

Then came the repeat presidential election and things have not changed much. In fact, NASA has only grown weaker. First, they got very few MPs, senators, governors and MCAs, giving Jubilee an almost super majority in Parliament. The opposition’s woes were made worse when they bungled their own nominations and sibling rivalry ensued, giving Jubilee an advantage even in the places that were considered hostile to the ruling party. It cannot be accurately assumed that the sibling rivalry only affected the lower level votes and not those for the presidency.

But the latest and clearest indication that Raila was headed for another resounding defeat is the wave of defections that has hit the opposition alliance. Most of those who lost their seats in the General Election largely due to NASA’s carelessness are now moving in droves to the President’s party. They have finally realized that the opposition has nothing better to offer other than mere promises of a brighter future that never comes. Even one of the so-called principals had to bolt out after suffering a humiliating defeat. Some people argue that the defectors are losers who will have little effect in the voting patterns, rightly so. However, that little influence counts and it is what Jubilee needs to make its win a landslide.

Even the lacklustre with which the NASA co-principals were approaching this election was an indication the opposition was not enthusiastic about the poll. Prior to the August 8 elections, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi enthusiastically drummed up support with his signature clarion call “Nasa hao”. But since the Supreme Court ruling, Mudavadi has been missing in action and whenever he appeared in public, his face showed a man very demoralized and exhausted. Even Kalonzo was not as energetic as before.

It is all these signs that Raila saw and he was smart enough to recognize that he would not win this election under any circumstance. And rather than disappoint his supporters again after giving them something to celebrate about in a long time – the Supreme Court ruling – he decided he would rather withdraw and blame it on demands for electoral reforms. It is only unfortunate that he did not withdraw procedurally and will still be on the ballot on October 26.