Will Raila Odinga back Kalonzo Musyokas bid in 2022?

That is the question political pundits are quietly asking themselves.

Though Raila has publicly stated that he will abide by the agreement that paved the way for his candidature in this year’s presidential contest, there is no guarantee that he will back Kalonzo in the next election.

According to the agreement, Raila – if he defeats President Uhuru Kenyatta, which is unlikely going by current dynamics – will serve for only one term and then pass the baton to the former vice president.

But he has a history of reneging on such agreements and thus the probability that he will do it again.

Indeed, were it not for the entry of former deputy prime minister Musalia Mudavadi, there are high chances that the deal that saw Kalonzo sacrifice his ambitions would have been struck.

It is Mudavadi who came up with the idea of forming the National Super Alliance to bring together opposition leaders and forge a common approach to the race to replace President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House.

Even then, a dispute over an agreement reached before the last election which would have seen Raila back Kalonzo for the presidency this year nearly boiled over. Again, it is Mudavadi who came to Raila’s rescue by stating that he was not a party to that agreement and hence it was not a factor in this election.

Before then, has dismissed the MoU, saying ceased to be valid after the IEBC announced that President Kenyatta had emerged the winner in the last general elections

However, Wiper leaders were of a different opinion.

“The support of Kalonzo was not based on the election victory of 2013 and Wiper will be pushing for Kalonzo’s candidacy during CORD’s negotiations for a flag bearer,” said Wiper secretary general Hassan Omar.

Kalonzo had also sought to have Raila forgo his ambitions on account of his age, saying that he cannot match the dynamic duo of President Uhuru and his deputy William Ruto. The issue of age is said to have caused so much heat that at one time, Raila nearly shed tears at a Cord retreat.

It was not the first time that Raila was proving he is not a honest broker. Prior to his “Kibaki Tosha” declaration at Uhuru Park that saw the tide change in favour of Mwai Kibaki in the 2002 elections, Raila had met with former minister Simeon Nyachae and pledged to back him for the presidency. There is even talk that money changed hands.

After his declaration, Nyachae felt betrayed and chose to abandon plans to form an opposition coalition that was to back a single candidate and instead launched a solo bid on the ticket of his Ford People party. He has never forgiven Raila.

Before then, Raila had entered into a marriage of convenience with former president Daniel Arap Moi in the hope that he will succeed him.When Moi chose Uhuru instead, Raila walked out of Kanu to eventually back Kibaki.

However, the reason why Raila chose Kibaki over Nyachae was that of the fact that they both hail from Nyanza and the likelihood of getting a bigger stake in a future government was not as huge as under Kibaki.

By backing Kibaki, Raila was eyeing the position of Prime Minister, which was to be created once they amended the Constitution within 100 days. When this did not come to pass, Raila launched an internal revolt within the Kibaki administration which eventually saw his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Brigade sacked from Cabinet.

But if Kalonzo felt offended by Raila’s decision to renege on the pre-2013 deal, the former PM was living true to the maxim that revenge is a dish best served cold.

In the previous election, Kalonzo had frustrated Raila’s bid by snatching ODM-Kenya from him and after the election, he joined Kibaki’s government as vice president even as Raila’s ODM bitterly protested the result.

In joining Kibaki’s corner, Kalonzo succeeded in taking the thunder away from Raila and played a big role in the manner the post-election violence accord was reached.

Another thing to note is that even if Raila backs Kalonzo in 2022, there is no guarantee that his support base will do the same.

Raila is also known to go the highest bidder in determining which candidate to back within his ODM party and the probability that he will do the same for the presidency come 2022.

Kalonzo has also lost the support of many of financiers, including Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama, and this is likely to work against him.

By John Munuhe, MP Mwingi North.